By MARSHA MERCER
A wise editor of mine used to say, “Wet streets don’t
cause rain.”
John’s point, of course, was not to confuse cause and
effect. I’ve thought about his warning often since President Donald Trump began
his counter-narrative about coronavirus testing.
As the number of positive cases of COVID-19 soared
this summer, Trump repeatedly blamed the tests for causing the cases.
Testing “makes us look bad,” he tweeted in June.
At the Tulsa rally a few days later, he said, “I said
to my people, `Slow the testing down, please.’”
His aides tried to pass that remark off as a joke, but
Trump said, “I don’t kid.”
“Cases, Cases, Cases! If we didn’t test so much and so
successfully, we would have very few cases,” he tweeted in July.
And, he told reporters, “When you test you create cases.”
That’s all wrong. Pregnancy tests don’t create babies.
Not only the number of cases but the positivity rate –
the percentage of tests coming back positive -- also soared in many places.
“A higher percent positive suggests higher
transmission and that there are likely more people with coronavirus in the
community who haven’t been tested yet,” the Johns Hopkins School of Public
Health says, noting it may be a time to add restrictions to slow spread of the
disease.
On Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention quietly posted new guidelines on its website that likely will sow confusion
and discourage people from getting tested.
“If you have been in close contact (within 6 feet) of
a person with a COVID-19 infection for at least 15 minutes but do not have
symptoms, you do not necessarily need a test,” the latest guidance says.
Previously, the CDC urged all people who had come in
close contact with an infected person to get tested.
The timing could not be worse. Hundreds of thousands
of children and older students are going back to school and college. To keep
them, their teachers and other essential workers safe, people need to know if
they’re infected so they can self-isolate.
The new guidance cites as an exception “vulnerable” individuals
and advises everyone to listen to health care providers and local public health
officials.
“I’m dumbfounded by this recommendation,” Dr. Michael
Osterholm, director of infectious diseases research at the University of
Minnesota, said on CNN.
It may take four or five
days for exposure to show up on a test, he said, but people still need to be
tested.
Trump and everyone who comes near him at the White
House are tested repeatedly. He doesn’t need to wear a mask, he says, because everyone
gets a test.
Good for them. But what about the rest of us?
Admiral Brett Giroir, assistant secretary of Health
and Human Services in charge of testing, denied Trump pressured the CDC and
said the guidance had been updated to reflect “current evidence.” But he didn’t
present any.
“All the docs” including Dr. Anthony Fauci, director
of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, had signed off on
the new guidelines at a meeting, Giroir said.
Not so, said Fauci. He had seen an earlier draft but wasn’t
present when the final version was approved. He had a good excuse.
“I was under general anesthesia in the operating room
and was not part of any discussion or deliberation regarding the new testing
recommendations,” he told CNN. Fauci had surgery Aug. 20 for a polyp on his
vocal cords.
“I am concerned about the interpretation of these
recommendations and worried it will give people the incorrect assumption that
asymptomatic spread is not of great concern. In fact, it is,” Fauci said.
About 40% of COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic, the CDC
estimates, and the chance of people with no symptoms infecting someone else is
75%. That’s why knowing who is infected and having them quarantine for two
weeks is important.
Trump has consistently attacked his own health
experts, pressuring the CDC to rewrite guidelines for opening schools and
businesses and rushing at “warp speed” to have a vaccine by Nov. 3.
Everyone wants to live in the world again, and most of
us rely on science for the facts.
That means we need to know more – not less –
about the coronavirus, who has it and how it works.
For now, wear a mask, wash your hands, keep your
distance, stay home if you’re sick, and remember: Wet streets don’t cause rain.
©2020 Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.
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