By
MARSHA MERCER
As the
midterm elections draw closer, prospects are improving for Democrats to retake
the House.
If that
happens, Democrats can thank President Donald Trump in part.
Larry
Sabato’s Crystal Ball political newsletter at the University of Virginia said
this week Democrats now have a better than 50-50 chance of regaining control of
the House.
It was
the first time Sabato has gone above 50-50 this cycle, though other political
analysts have said a Democratic win of the House is likely. It’s still possible
something could happen before November to change that scenario, but the trend favors Democrats.
Historically,
the party out of power does well in midterms, as the Crystal Ball summarizes:
“The
president’s party has lost ground in 36 of 39 House midterms since the Civil
War with an average loss of 33 seats. In the more recent past, since the end of
World War II, the average seat loss is 26 seats, or right on the borderline of
the 23 net seats the Democrats need to elect a House majority.”
Trump is
making the minority party’s task easier by energizing Democrats. To borrow a
phrase from the past, they’re “fired up,” motivated to contribute to campaigns
and to vote.
More
significantly, Trump is losing favor among independents. Trump’s job approval
among independents was just 40 percent and 36 percent, according to the most
recent Fox News and NBC-Wall Street Journal polls.
He’s
unpopular overall as well. His approval rating languishes in the 40s, and a
record number of voters see this election as a vote for or against Trump, a survey
by the Pew Research Center found.
Many
analysts expected him to track toward the center after he took office but
instead he stayed in campaign mode, attacking Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi and
other Democrats.
He reneged
on his promise to “repeal and replace” ObamaCare with something better and
cheaper. Instead he used his executive power to weaken the Affordable Care
Act’s coverage for tens of millions of Americans, raising costs and presenting
Democrats with a potent issue.
With “Medicare
for all” no longer a fringe idea, the Trump administration has revived charges of
socialized medicine. Worried House Republicans
passed several measures that would rein in health-care costs, but none is expected
to pass the Senate.
Trump’s
ongoing war with his own Justice Department and his embarrassing behavior with
Russian President Vladimir Putin make him appear guilty of something involving
Russia.
He
continues to prop up straw man foes for his culture wars, such as the NFL
players’ protest of taking a knee during the National Anthem.
And he
has nominated a slew of conservative judges to lifetime appointments, further
inciting concern among Democrats and independents about the future of Roe v.
Wade.
Democrats
need Senate control to stop Trump’s judicial juggernaut, but with Democrats
defending more than twice as many seats as Republicans, so many things have to
go right for Democrats, change is unlikely.
Trump’s
constant pandering to his base is paying off – with his base. His job approval among
Republicans is sky-high -- 84 percent and 88 percent in the Fox and NBC-Journal
polls, respectively.
“Stick
with us,” he told the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention Tuesday. “Don’t
believe the crap you see from these people – the fake news,” he said.
Trump
may think he can hold the House by turning out his die-hard supporters, but polls
suggest that’s unlikely, because of independents.
Independents
by more than 20 points now favor a Congress controlled by Democrats, 48 percent
to 26 percent, the NBC-Journal poll reported. That’s up from 7 points in June,
when the spread was 39 percent to 32 percent.
And so
the election approaches, and day by day Trump becomes more shrill, a tactic
likely to turn independents away even more.
“Just
remember,” he told the VFW. “What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is
not what’s happening.”
Trump probably
had no idea Orwell wrote in “1984”: “The party told you to reject the evidence
of your eyes and ears. It was the final, most essential command.”
You can
be sure social media will let voters know about such eerie Orwellian echoes.
Democrats may well may say, keep talking, Mr. Trump, and thank you.
©2018
Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.
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