By MARSHA MERCER
With Super Tuesday behind us, it’s hard to argue that
Donald J. Trump won’t be the Republican presidential nominee -- but let’s give
it a try.
Yes, Trump swept seven of 11 states on Super Tuesday
and won 10 of the first 15 presidential contests. Yes, he’s ahead in the
delegate count and, yes, his news conference Super Tuesday night struck some
observers as presidential. That was because he wasn’t as crude and bombastic as
he is in rallies.
Some prominent Republicans, like Chris Christie, have
joined his campaign.
But Trump is not the inevitable GOP nominee.
In a bizarre, perhaps unprecedented, display of angst,
a movement is building among Republican lawmakers, party leaders and donors to derail
a Trump nomination.
Desperation is in the air. After endorsements of other
candidates by Republican members of Congress and party leaders failed to sway angry
voters, the GOP establishment is repudiating the party frontrunner.
Even Mitt
Romney, the party’s defeated 2012 presidential nominee, got into the act,
calling Trump a phony and a fraud.
If Trump is the nominee, some Republicans say they
won’t vote for him in November.
One of the first to come forward was Rep. Scott
Rigell, a Virginia Republican.
“I reject Trump as our nominee based on his judgment,
temperament and character, all of which point to a reckless, embarrassing and
ultimately dangerous presidency,” Rigell wrote in an open letter Tuesday.
Rigell, who is not running for reelection after three
terms in the House, is supporting Marco Rubio. If Rubio doesn’t make it, Rigell
said he’ll write in someone else’s name.
I get it that the Republican Party is in a tizzy over
Trump. He’s a boor and a bigot who plays to our worst instincts. But Trump
waltzed through the door Republicans opened for him with years of carping about
the dreadful direction of the country, Washington and the federal government.
With millions of new voters rising up to change the
status quo, the party establishment now says no, that’s not what we meant at all. Really.
On the other hand, for all his success, Trump is not a
majority candidate. In the contests through Super Tuesday, he won just 34
percent of Republican votes cast. In other words, nearly two-thirds of
Republicans wanted another GOP candidate.
In Virginia, Trump won with 35 percent of the
Republican primary vote. In Alabama, he scored 43 percent and in Tennessee 39
percent. His strongest showing was in Massachusetts with 49 percent. It was a
five-man race, so the votes naturally were split.
We haven’t even reached the halfway point of the primary
process. After Super Tuesday, 71 percent of delegates to this summer’s
Republican National Convention remained to be chosen.
Super Tuesday kept alive the hopes of other Republican
candidates (except for Ben Carson) at least until the next major contests on
March 15 -- winner-take-all primaries in Florida and Ohio and other states. Florida
and Ohio are must-wins for Marco Rubio and John Kasich, who hope, along with Ted
Cruz, to be the Trump alternative.
Dozens of Republican donors who backed GOP candidates
no longer in the race now are trying to dump Trump. Our Principles PAC, a Super
PAC, is running ads against him in key states.
Trump’s divisive presence has enlivened the primary
system even more than Barack Obama did in 2008. All the Super Tuesday states
reported record turnout this year, except Vermont.
In Virginia, a record 1 million
people voted in the Republican primary on Tuesday – more than the Democrats in
the hot 2008 primary race between Obama and Hillary Clinton.
More people have voted in Republican than in Democratic
contests this year, and that should worry Democrats, who are indulging in more
than a little schadenfreude over the Republican meltdown.
Most voters in this country consider themselves
neither Democrat nor Republican but independent. The party that cobbles
together an alliance with the most independents likely will win in November.
Trump claims he’s a “unifier.” We’ll see March 15
whether he unifies voters for – or against – him. Republican primary voters will
decide that question.
©2016 Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.
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